Transport Configuration Comparison
The Missing Analysis
On March 30, 2026, the South Portland Board of Education voted 4-2 to adopt Option A (grade-band reconfiguration) and 6-1 to close Kaler Elementary. The FY27 budget failed 2-5, meaning the approved configuration is not yet funded. The Director of Operations confirmed on the record that no transportation modeling exists. The Superintendent confirmed at the 3/30/2026 meeting that transport logistics are “underway with a partner” but will be operationalized after the board votes, not before. A transportation consultant has been budgeted ($60-125K) but not hired, with no scope or timeline defined.
This page brings together the transportation analysis that residents may want in one place after the vote. It compares the approved configuration against the alternatives that were considered, across six transport metrics, using publicly available data and documented methodology. Every figure is an estimate — disclosed as such — and every assumption is transparent and correctable with district data.
Configuration Comparison (FY25 Baseline)
| Metric | Option A (APPROVED) | Option B |
|---|---|---|
| Structure | 2 primary (PreK-1) + 2 intermediate (2-4) | 4 buildings K-4, redistrict by proximity |
| Split families | 139-169 (18-24%) | 0 |
| Drivers needed | 30 | 24 |
| Driver gap (vs. 17-20 available) | -10 to -13 | -4 to -7 |
| Bus tiers required | 3-4 | 3 |
| MV exposure (annual) | $54,337-$127,853 | $30,365-$79,908 |
| Route expansion cost (annual) | $748,472 | $0 |
| Care gap families | 42-144 | 0 |
| District cost (annual) | $802,809-$876,325 | $30,365-$79,908 |
| Family cost (annual, care gaps) | $143,640-$803,520 | $0 |
| Total fiscal exposure | $946,449-$1,679,845 | $30,365-$79,908 |
| As % of claimed $1.5-2.2M savings | 43-112% | 1.4-5.3% |
Cost separation note: District costs (MV transport obligations + route expansion) affect the district budget directly. Family costs (before/after care gaps) are economic impacts borne by working families — real costs that don’t appear in the district budget. Both are consequences of reconfiguration.
Budget context: The FY27 budget failed 2-5 on March 30. The transportation costs above are not funded. Implementation planning must account for these costs in whatever budget ultimately passes.
Sensitivity Analysis: FY23 vs. FY25 Baseline
South Portland’s per-pupil transport costs rose 50.2% from FY23 to FY25 ($709 to $1,065) — nearly 5x the state average increase of 10.5%. The cause is unknown. If the FY25 figure is anomalously high, route expansion costs would be lower. This sensitivity analysis brackets the uncertainty.
| -------- | :------------------------: | :------------------------: | :---------------: | :---------------: | :----------------: | | Route expansion | $748,472 | $545,243 | $0 | $0 | $454,369 | | District cost | $802,809-$876,325 | $599,580-$673,096 | $30,365-$79,908 | $30,365-$79,908 | $500,716-$566,240 | | Family cost | $143,640-$803,520 | $143,640-$803,520 | $0 | $0 | $126,540-$714,240 | | Total exposure | $946,449-$1,679,845 | $743,220-$1,476,616 | $30,365-$79,908 | $30,365-$79,908 | $627,256-$1,280,480 | | % of savings | 43-112% | 34-98% | 1.4-5.3% | 1.4-5.3% | 29-85% |
Under either baseline, the rank ordering holds: Option B has the lowest impact, the approved Option A the highest.
Universal Driver Shortfall
The 3/30/2026 meeting confirmed the district has 20 bus drivers (Director of Operations Mike Natalie). The SEA cut from 100 to 86 FTE will remove 14 positions; how many are drivers is unknown, yielding an available range of 17-20.
Every configuration requires more drivers than available:
| Configuration | Routes/Drivers Needed | Available | Shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Option A (APPROVED) | 30 | 17-20 | -10 to -13 |
| Option B | 24 | 17-20 | -4 to -7 |
The confirmed 20-driver count reveals that even the status quo before reconfiguration is tight, and every reconfiguration option makes it tighter. The approved configuration creates the largest shortfall.
The driver schedule (7 AM-4 PM, idle 9:30-1:30) confirms the existing 3-tier structure is feasible with current drivers. A 4th tier — likely required under the approved Option A — would require extending the driver workday, hiring additional drivers, or both. This compounds the shortfall.
Diesel cost escalation was flagged at the 3/30 meeting (Board member Feller cited 25-50% increases; the Director of Operations called the impact “considerable” but could not quantify). This is not included in any estimate and would affect all configurations, with the largest absolute impact on the options requiring the most routes.
What Was Claimed vs. What the Approved Configuration Requires
| Claim | What the Approved Configuration Requires |
|---|---|
| Route cost changes “not anticipated to be significant” | Route expansion costs are $748,472/year (25% of the FY25 transport budget) |
| Savings of $1.5-2.2M from school closure | The approved Option A offsets 43-112% of claimed savings with transportation costs alone |
| No transport modeling before vote | Confirmed 3/30: logistics “underway with a partner” but post-vote |
| SEA unit cut from 100 to 86 FTE | 20 bus drivers confirmed; the approved configuration shows a driver shortfall of 10-13 |
| Middle school bell consolidation deferred for $25K traffic study | The approved elementary reconfiguration affects more students, buildings, and routes — no equivalent study was required or conducted |
| Before/after care not addressed | Care is FULL at 4/5 schools; 42-144 families face new care costs under the approved configuration |
Net Savings After Transportation
| Configuration | Claimed Savings | District Transport Cost | Family Transport Cost | Net District Savings | Total Net Savings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Option A (APPROVED) | $1.5M-$2.2M | $802,809-$876,325 | $143,640-$803,520 | $624K-$1.40M | $320K-$1.25M |
| Option B | $1.5M-$2.2M | $30,365-$79,908 | $0 | $1.42M-$2.17M | $1.42M-$2.17M |
Option B would have preserved 96-99% of claimed savings. The approved Option A preserves 28-93% of district savings, and as little as 15% when family costs are included. These figures use the FY25 baseline; FY23 sensitivity narrows the district cost but does not change the rank ordering.
Important caveat: The “claimed savings” figure itself has not been independently verified in this analysis.
Sources of Error and What Data Would Mitigate
Ranked by estimated impact on the final comparison:
| Rank | Error Source | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Route expansion cost (aggregate model, not route-level) | Could move total by $200K+ in either direction | District route-level modeling with fleet data and student addresses |
| 2 | Care gap rates (logistics estimate, not survey data) | Family cost range is wide ($144K-$804K for Option A) | Survey of affected families; actual waitlist data |
| 3 | MV displacement counts (estimated from configuration structure) | Drives MV cost; actual redistricting plans would narrow | District redistricting plan with student-level data |
| 4 | Walkability assumptions (35-40% proxy) | Affects rider counts and therefore route demand | District walk-zone policy with GIS data |
| 5 | FY25 baseline anomaly (50.2% unexplained increase) | Sensitivity analysis brackets this ($2.18M-$2.99M) | District explanation of FY23-FY25 transport cost increase |
| 6 | Sibling rates (national average, not local) | Split-family counts could shift 10-15% | District family-level enrollment data |
| 7 | Driver cut allocation (0-3 of 14 cuts could be drivers) | Available driver pool could be 17 or 20 | District confirmation of which SEA positions are cut |
All figures are order-of-magnitude estimates. The actual values could fall outside the stated ranges.
Data Sources
| Spec | Analysis | Source Data |
|---|---|---|
| split-family analysis | Split-Family Count | Enrollment (school-geography trove), Census SIPP sibling rates |
| McKinney-Vento analysis | McKinney-Vento | MV eligibility rate (evidence pools), transport costs (DOE data) |
| staffing analysis | SEA Staffing | Driver count (3/30 BoE meeting), SEA FTE (budget documents) |
| bell schedule analysis | Bell Schedule | SPSD website, driver schedule (3/30 BoE meeting) |
| care-gap analysis | Care Gap | SoPo Kids Club rates, split-family + bell schedule outputs |
| configuration comparison | Configuration Comparison | DOE per-pupil FY23-FY25, all upstream spec outputs |
Full methodology: METHODOLOGY.md
Invitation to Improve
Every estimate in this comparison can be replaced with facts the district possesses:
- Family-level enrollment data — exact split-family counts (replacing sibling rate estimates)
- McKinney-Vento roster — exact MV-eligible student counts per school
- SEA position-level cut list — which of the 14 cut FTEs are drivers (replacing the 17-20 range)
- Fleet size and route data — actual route requirements and tier feasibility
- Care waitlist numbers — actual unmet demand (replacing binary FULL/Available status)
- Route-level cost modeling — actual route expansion costs (replacing aggregate model)
- Transport consultant analysis — confirmed “underway with a partner” at 3/30 meeting
The district has confirmed that a transport consultant has been engaged. When that analysis is complete, it can validate, correct, or replace every figure here.
The methodology is documented and transparent. All analysis scripts are available in pipeline/transport/. Corrections, data contributions, and methodological challenges are welcome — the goal is the most accurate picture possible, not any particular conclusion.